Q4 Planning: Lead Times for Paint by Numbers Wholesale Orders
Written by the production planning team at Art Painting by Numbers, Tianjin · Updated October 2026 · 10 min read
To have wholesale paint by numbers stock on your shelf for the holiday season, your order must reach the factory by late July for sea freight or mid-September for air. Those two dates are the whole article in one sentence. Everything below explains why they are what they are, and how to recover if you have already missed them.
Every year we watch buyers place Q4 orders in October, then pay three to ten times the freight to fix a problem that was created by a calendar. The category has a hard seasonal peak, factories across China compete for the same production windows, and the Chinese New Year shutdown then collides with the following quarter. Planning against that reality is not pessimism; it is the difference between 30 cents and $2.60 of freight per kit.
The full timeline, backwards from delivery
Work backwards from the date you need stock in your warehouse, not forwards from the date you feel ready to order. For a custom design with printed packaging, sold online from 1 November:
| Stage | Duration | Finish by (sea) | Finish by (air) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock available for sale | — | 1 November | 1 November |
| Import clearance and inland delivery to your warehouse | 5–10 days | 22 October | 22 October |
| Ocean or air transit | 25–40 days sea / 6–12 days air | 12 October | 10 October |
| Production | 15–20 days for a custom printed-box order | 22 September | 22 September |
| Pre-production sample approval | 3–5 working days | 2 September | 2 September |
| Digital proof and revisions | 2–5 working days | 26 August | 26 August |
| Artwork, barcode and label files supplied | Buyer's task | 18 August | 18 August |
| Deposit paid and order confirmed | — | Late July | Mid-September |
Two things stand out. First, the buyer's own tasks — supplying vector artwork, barcode numbers, packaging copy and compliance information — consume more calendar than most people expect, and they are the most common cause of a slip. Second, sample approval cannot be compressed safely. Skipping it saves four days and risks an entire order.
Why the peak season is expensive
- Factory capacity tightens from September. Every craft, toy and gift manufacturer in China is chasing the same October and November production slots. Our standard 8–15 day lead time becomes 15–25 days for orders confirmed after mid-September.
- Freight rates rise into peak season. Carriers apply peak season surcharges, usually from August or September, and space on westbound routes becomes scarce in October and November. A 40ft HQ booked in July can cost substantially less than the same box booked in October.
- Port congestion compounds. Destination ports handle their own seasonal peak simultaneously, so the 25–35 day transit estimate can extend by a week or more in November and December.
- Air freight becomes the only lever. Buyers who miss the sea deadline pay air rates — roughly $1.90–$2.60 per 40 × 50 cm kit instead of $0.28–$0.42 by LCL. That is more than the product cost.
The freight comparison is set out with working maths in FOB Tianjin explained.
The Chinese New Year trap
Chinese New Year falls between late January and mid-February depending on the year, and its effect on supply is much larger than the holiday itself. Factories begin winding down ten to fourteen days before the official holiday as workers travel home, and take two to three weeks afterwards to return to full staffing — many workers do not come back at all, so February and March are often spent recruiting and retraining.
Practical rule: any order you need delivered before the end of February must be confirmed by early December. Any order confirmed in January arrives, realistically, in March or April. Buyers who treat the shutdown as two weeks are consistently a month behind.
| Period | Factory status | Realistic lead time |
|---|---|---|
| September – mid-October | Peak season, capacity constrained | 15–25 days |
| Late October – November | Peak easing, freight still high | 12–20 days |
| December – early January | Normal capacity, best window of the year | 8–15 days |
| Mid-January – pre-CNY | Winding down, workers departing | Confirm only what can ship before the holiday |
| Chinese New Year, 2–3 weeks | Closed | No production |
| 2–4 weeks post-CNY | Restarting, staffing recovery | 15–25 days |
| March – August | Normal, best rates and capacity | 8–15 days |
The December-to-early-January window is the best of the year: capacity is free, freight has come off its peak, and lead times return to 8–15 days. Buyers who plan Q1 and Mother's Day ranges in that window get the fastest service and the lowest cost of the entire cycle.
A year-round ordering calendar
| Sell into | Confirm order by (sea) | Confirm order by (air) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valentine's Day, 14 February | Early October | Early December | Collides with CNY — order earlier than feels necessary |
| Easter, March–April | November | January | Post-CNY restart risk; build a buffer |
| Mother's Day, May | Early February | Mid March | Florals and personalisation; strong gifting season |
| Summer, June–August | March | May | Coastal, garden, travel and kids' ranges |
| Back to school, September | May | July | Kids' kits, lower colour counts |
| Halloween, October | June | August | Dark palettes, gothic themes |
| Black Friday and Christmas | Late July | Mid September | The deadline that matters most |
| January wellness push | September | November | New Year resolution demand; mindfulness positioning |
If you have already missed the deadline
It happens, and there are four ways to recover, in order of preference:
- Split the shipment. Produce the full order but air-freight the first 20% to cover launch and promotions, and let the balance follow by sea. You pay air rates on a fifth of the volume instead of all of it — often the cheapest recovery available.
- Drop the printed box for this run. A custom box adds 3–5 days and a 500-set MOQ. A kraft mailer with your printed sleeve ships faster and at a lower quantity, which buys back a week or two.
- Buy from the ready design library. Designs that are already converted and colour-matched produce in 8–10 days instead of 15–20. Add your thank-you card and label, and you have a branded product on a white label timeline.
- Start on dropshipping while stock is in transit. List the designs, sell them, and let us fulfil single orders direct to your customers. You begin generating revenue and reviews immediately, then switch to your own stock when it lands. Our dropshipping programme has no minimum order, which is what makes this workable as a bridge rather than a compromise.
That fourth option is genuinely useful rather than a consolation. Sellers who bridge with dropshipping keep their advertising account warm, accumulate reviews before stock arrives, and learn which designs actually sell before the container lands.
How to shorten your own part of the timeline
- Send vector artwork (AI, EPS, SVG or PDF) rather than a raster logo. A low-resolution JPEG forces a redraw and costs days.
- Have barcode numbers ready before you order. Buying EAN or UPC codes from your national numbering body can take a week.
- Decide your compliance market early. If you need EN71-3 or ASTM F963 testing, add 7–10 days for laboratory turnaround and book it at proof stage rather than after production.
- Approve proofs fast. Production lead time runs from written approval, not from order. A three-day internal review delay is a three-day shipping delay.
- Keep an approved reference on file. Repeat orders of an existing design skip proofing and sampling entirely and ship in 8 days. This is the single biggest lead-time advantage available to an established brand.
Frequently asked questions
What is the last date to order paint by numbers stock for Christmas?
Late July for sea freight and mid-September for air freight, assuming a custom design with printed packaging and stock needed by 1 November. For a ready-library design in standard packaging you can push those dates roughly three weeks later. After mid-October, sea is no longer viable for holiday selling.
Does your lead time really stay at 8–15 days in peak season?
For orders confirmed before mid-September, yes. After that, capacity constraints across the category mean 15–25 days is the honest figure, and we will tell you so at quotation rather than promising a date we cannot hold. Repeat orders of existing designs stay closest to 8 days even in peak.
How long is the factory closed for Chinese New Year?
The official holiday is about a week, but the practical shutdown runs four to six weeks: production winds down ten to fourteen days beforehand as workers travel, and full staffing takes two to three weeks to return afterwards. Plan as though the factory is unavailable for six weeks from late January.
Can I split an order between air and sea to save money?
Yes, and it is the standard recovery move. Air-freight the quantity you need to launch and promote, and let the balance follow by sea. You pay premium rates on a fraction of the volume. We will produce both consignments from one run and pack them separately with distinct carton markings.
Should I hold safety stock?
For your three best-selling designs, yes — enough to cover one full replenishment cycle, which is roughly six to eight weeks from order confirmation to shelf. That buffer is what lets you absorb a production slip, a port congestion event or an unexpected demand spike from a viral post without going out of stock. Depth beyond that ties up cash for little additional protection.
Book your production window before it fills
Tell us your sell-by date and destination. We will work the calendar backwards, confirm whether sea or air is viable, and reserve a production slot so your seasonal stock does not arrive in January.